As we approach the big decisions in the group stage of the Euro 2016, I have tried to estimate the chance that teams will reach the knockout stage.
The idea was to look at all possible results in the 3rd round of matches in the group stage, and find out what are the most likely outcomes in terms of who will qualify and who will teams play in the 1st knockout round.
I made no assumptions about who is favourite to win each match. So, I assumed a random goal difference in the last match between -3 and +3, each with 1/7 probability. For example, the goal difference in the match Switzerland-France has equal probability of ending with draw, or a victory to Switzerland by 3, 2, or 1 goals, or with a victory to France by 3, 2, or 1 goals.
Who will reach the knockout stages?
Here’s a chart of the probability of teams qualifying for the knockout stage. The numbers assume all results between a 3-0 and a 0-3 are equally likely in match day 3.
Here is a table of the percent chance of qualifying:
The results shown as a word cloud, where the size of the word is proportional to the chances of progressing in the tournament:
Most likely opponents
For the teams with a good chance of reaching the KS, here are their most likely opponents:
There are some pretty interesting prospects for the next round. For instance, a Spain-Italy, and a Germany-France are quite likely.
Should Portugal qualify, they will most likely play against Belgium, although Sweden or Italy are also possible.
Most likely ties in round of 16
Here is a visualisation of the eight matches of the first knockout round. The likelihood of a certain tie in match 1 to 8 is proportional to the size of the text.
Decisions that narrow down these possibilities start this evening at 8pm! Looking forward to it.