Who will reach the knockout stages?
Here’s a chart of the probability of teams qualifying for the knockout stage. The numbers assume all results between a 3-0 and a 0-3 are equally likely in match day 3.
Most likely ties in round of 16
Here is a visualisation of the eight matches of the first knockout round. The likelihood of a certain tie in match 1 to 8 is proportional to the size of the text.
There are some pretty interesting prospects for the next round. For instance, an Italy-Spain, an Italy-Croatia, and even a France-Germany are quite likely.
For the teams with a chance of reaching the knockouts, here’s a table with their most likely opponents: