Euro 2016 – update 1

This is a followup on another post and is followed up by update 2.

Who will reach the knockout stages?

Here’s a chart of the probability of teams qualifying for the knockout stage. The numbers assume all results between a 3-0 and a 0-3 are equally likely in match day 3.



Most likely ties in round of 16

Here is a visualisation of the eight matches of the first knockout round. The likelihood of a certain tie in match 1 to 8 is proportional to the size of the text.



There are some pretty interesting prospects for the next round. For instance, an Italy-Spain, an Italy-Croatia, and even a France-Germany are quite likely.

For the teams with a chance of reaching the knockouts, here’s a table with their most likely opponents:

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