Euro 2016 – Knockout stage

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Now that the group stage is finished, Euro 2016 will enter the knockout stage. Below is my forecast for the upcoming matches.

Sixteen teams will play eight matches in the first round. The winners will move into the quarter-finals. The 8 matches are:

1: Switzerland vs Poland
2: Croatia vs Portugal
3: Wales vs N. Ireland
4: Hungary vs Belgium
5: Germany vs Slovakia
6: Italy vs Spain
7: France vs Ireland
8: England vs Iceland

I have estimated the teams most likely to win these matches, based solely on their performance in the tournament so far. The performance of each team is measured simply by the number points accumulated in the group phase, which is as follows:

Croatia 7
France 7
Germany 7
Poland 7
Belgium 6
Italy 6
Spain 6
Wales 6
England 5
Hungary 5
Iceland 5
Switzerland 5
Ireland 4
Slovakia 4
N_Ireland 3
Portugal 3

Quarter Finals

Here is my statistical guess for the most likely quarter finals ties:

QuarterFinalsThu 23 Jun 2016 13:37:50.png

As before, the size of the font in each match is proportional to the match actually happening. The sizes vary with the natural logarithm of the probability of occurrence.

Colour also indicates probability. The colour scheme is now continuous, so there are more subtle differences in colour. Red means most likely.

In numbers, the probabilities of the following ties happening are:

Poland-Croatia 41.4%
Wales-Belgium 36.6%
Germany-Spain 32.5%
France-Iceland 32.3%
Germany-Italy 31.7%
Wales-Hungary 30.7%
France-England 30.7%
Switzerland-Croatia 28.6%
Ireland-Iceland 18.8%
Slovakia-Italy 18.3%
Ireland-England 18.2%
Slovakia-Spain 17.5%
N.Ireland-Belgium 17.5%
Poland-Portugal 17.3%
N.Ireland-Hungary 15.2%
Switzerland-Portugal 12.6%

Semi Finals

Using the Quarter Finals results, I calculate the likelihood of different Semi Finals. The procedure is the same as for the Quarter Finals, but I add 3 points to each winning team in the Quarter Finals, making the teams effectively nearer in strength (i.e. adding uncertainty).

The results are the following. (I only show the 16 most likely ties in each semi final.)

SemiFinalsThu 23 Jun 2016 13:38:05.png

Again, in numbers:

Croatia-Wales 13.%
Germany-France 12.3%
Poland-Wales 11.2%
Croatia-Belgium 10.8%
Spain-France 8.8%
Italy-France 8.8%
Poland-Belgium 8.6%
Croatia-Hungary 8.4%
Germany-Iceland 7.9%
Germany-England 7.7%
Poland-Hungary 7.%
Switzerland-Wales 6.9%
Italy-Iceland 6.5%
Italy-England 6.%
Spain-England 5.9%
Germany-Ireland 5.8%
Spain-Iceland 5.8%
Slovakia-France 5.6%
Switzerland-Belgium 5.5%
Croatia-N.Ireland 5.%
Spain-Ireland 4.7%
Italy-Ireland 4.4%
Switzerland-Hungary 4.3%
Portugal-Wales 4.3%
Poland-N.Ireland 4.2%
Slovakia-Iceland 3.8%
Portugal-Belgium 3.7%
Slovakia-England 3.4%
Portugal-Hungary 2.9%
Switzerland-N.Ireland 2.7%
Slovakia-Ireland 2.7%
Portugal-N.Ireland 1.6%

Finals

Extending the calculation to possible finals, I get this: (again showing only the top 16 most likely ties.)

FinalsThu 23 Jun 2016 13:38:24.png

 

Winner

As for the winner, here is my best guess at the chances of the different nations.

Croatia 10.2%
France 9.9%
Germany 8.9%
Wales 8.6%
Poland 8.6%
Belgium 7.2%
Italy 7.1%
Spain 6.2%
Hungary 5.7%
Iceland 5.5%
England 5.4%
Switzerland 4.4%
Ireland 3.8%
Slovakia 3.2%
N.Ireland 2.9%
Portugal 2.4%
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